Financial Markets and the Upcoming Elections

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This morning I was privileged to spend time with some of my colleagues here at Orchard Alliance as well as four financial market experts who advise us on our investments. Three of the advisors represent Morgan Stanley, and one is on Orchard Alliance’s Board of Directors. Currently, Orchard Alliance has about $100 million of reserve, operating, and fiduciary funds invested in the financial markets.[/post-introduction]

We wanted to hear the experts’ best analysis on what the upcoming elections will mean for the markets to help us determine if there are any specific actions we should consider. I thought you might be interested in some of their thoughts.We discussed where the economy and the markets have been, where we are now, and what could be expected going forward. The bottom line is that the presidential election itself is unlikely to affect the financial markets very much, regardless of who wins. However, a contested election may elevate the risks since the markets typically don’t react well to uncertainty. Many Senate races are expected to be decided by slim margins, but whichever party holds the majority after the election will probably not enjoy a clear mandate. For those reasons, our advisors expect that not much will change in the first 12 months following this year’s election. They are forecasting a strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021, and they believe there is still room for good equity returns over the end of this year and into next.

Orchard Alliance may make some minor changes affecting our highly diversified equity and fixed income holdings, but we don’t plan to make any drastic adjustments in light of the above analysis.

Orchard Alliance is here to walk with you and to provide tools and resources for the journey.

Please let me know if you have comments at presidentscorner@orchardalliance.org. They are always welcome.